Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 78¢ · $260 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$260.06
-$2.26
75.1¢ → 77.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 75¢ | $102.75 | $102.07 | -$0.69 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.4¢ | $77.19 | $74.55 | -$2.64 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $20.57 | $21.24 | +$0.67 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $20.03 | $19.9 | -$0.13 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $17.43 | $17.68 | +$0.25 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 74.7¢ | $11.53 | $11.5 | -$0.03 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 73.5¢ | $7.35 | $7.55 | +$0.2 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $5.47 | $5.58 | +$0.11 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$102.75
Value
$102.07
PnL
-$0.69
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$77.19
Value
$74.55
PnL
-$2.64
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$20.57
Value
$21.24
PnL
+$0.67
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.03
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$17.43
Value
$17.68
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11.53
Value
$11.5
PnL
-$0.03
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$7.55
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
Invested
$5.47
Value
$5.58
PnL
+$0.11
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.