Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 0.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 76¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$33.48
93¢ → 75.5¢
-19% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 87.4¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$238.72 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 87.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$200.17 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 15.3¢ | $724.56 | $1.2K | +$438.9 | |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 93¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$5.93 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 7¢ | $102.06 | $109.35 | +$7.29 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 14.8¢ | $49.46 | $82.1 | +$32.64 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $2.55 | $1.91 | -$0.64 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $1.88 | $1.85 | -$0.03 | 66% 23472-11826 (35298) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $0.58 | $0.73 | +$0.15 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
Invested
$2,190.61
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$238.72
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,103.91
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$5.93
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
Invested
$102.06
Value
$109.35
PnL
+$7.29
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$49.46
Value
$82.1
PnL
+$32.64
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$0.64
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.03
Record
66%
23472-11826 (35298)
Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.73
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.