Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 60¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$7.2K
-$28.62
59.6¢ → 59.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Noavg 59.5¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$0 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$26.88 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 60¢ | $208.89 | $205.41 | -$1.74 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $14.39 | $14.39 | +$0 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $11.18 | $11.18 | -$0 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
NooseracInvested
$5,950
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,084.42
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$26.88
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
HRTradingInvested
$208.89
Value
$205.41
PnL
-$1.74
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$14.39
Value
$14.39
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
Invested
$11.18
Value
$11.18
PnL
-$0
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.