Will Elche CF vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 61¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 1

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.6K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 60.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares29,222

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares13,344

Combined PnL-$258.27

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 63¢	$13.0K	$14.7K	+$1.7K	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$6.1K	$6.3K	+$193.22	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.5¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$615.56
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$422.34
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$1.49	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
C6 C63AMG	Noavg 64¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$210	72% 875-334 (1209)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 66.7¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$188.65	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
us391	Noavg 70¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$18.87	51% 1713-1675 (3388)
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$1.1K	$906.25	-$218.75	46% 74-86 (160)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$614.74	$614.74	-$0	53% 2255-1981 (4236)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 71¢	$227.07	$223.87	+$1.6	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 71.3¢	$160.66	$160.07	-$0.58	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
noosh3CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$112.5	$90.63	-$21.88	52% 282-260 (542)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 70¢	$79.1	$80.23	+$1.13	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$48.33	$42.79	-$5.55	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$42.94	$35.98	-$6.96	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$38.62	$32	-$6.62	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.06	$4.06	+$0	51% 6082-5802 (11884)

Anon455

Invested

$12,998.91

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,058.31

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$193.22

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Yes$3,414.1133.5¢+$615.56

No$2,644.272¢-$422.34

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,141.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.49

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

C63AMG

Invested

$1,920

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$210

Record

72%

875-334 (1209)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,037.32

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$188.65

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

us391

Invested

$1,320.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$18.87

Record

51%

1713-1675 (3388)

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,125

Value

$906.25

PnL

-$218.75

Record

46%

74-86 (160)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Yes

Invested

$614.74

Value

$614.74

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$227.07

Value

$223.87

PnL

+$1.6

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$160.66

Value

$160.07

PnL

-$0.58

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

noosh3CTR

Yes

Invested

$112.5

Value

$90.63

PnL

-$21.88

Record

52%

282-260 (542)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$79.1

Value

$80.23

PnL

+$1.13

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.33

Value

$42.79

PnL

-$5.55

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.94

Value

$35.98

PnL

-$6.96

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.62

Value

$32

PnL

-$6.62

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.