Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$16.24

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,930

Combined PnL+$14.66

No4 traders

Total Value$984.57

Total Shares2,238

Combined PnL+$1.59

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 56¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$14.66	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 43.9¢	$937.16	$938.57	+$1.41	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$36.08	$36.08	+$0	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$7.54	$7.72	+$0.18	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	49% 13022-13588 (26610)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$1,641.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$14.66

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$937.16

Value

$938.57

PnL

+$1.41

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$36.08

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.54

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.