Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$8.3K
-$24.26
54.5¢ → 53.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 45.9¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | +$49.07 | 50% 19412-19792 (39204) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Overavg 55¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$54.6 | 73% 3598-1329 (4927) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$8.44 | 50% 25589-25416 (51005) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Overavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$10 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $31.86 | $31.86 | -$0.3 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
Invested
$4,072.81
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$49.07
Record
50%
19412-19792 (39204)
Invested
$2,002
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$54.6
Record
73%
3598-1329 (4927)
Invested
$1,097.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$8.44
Record
50%
25589-25416 (51005)
Invested
$1,080
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
5694-5029 (10723)
Invested
$31.86
Value
$31.86
PnL
-$0.3
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.