Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$170.17

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 93¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,786

Combined PnL+$175.17

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.43

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$5

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 83.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$174.77	59% 47089-33330 (80419)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 89¢	$8.9	$9.3	+$0.4	50% 33950-33521 (67471)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 14.2¢	$6.55	$2.76	-$3.79	48% 9059-9756 (18815)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 16.9¢	$1.88	$0.67	-$1.21	53% 5794-5204 (10998)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,476.91

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$174.77

Record

59%

47089-33330 (80419)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

33950-33521 (67471)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.55

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$3.79

Record

48%

9059-9756 (18815)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.88

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

5794-5204 (10998)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.