Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.9K
$19.94
74.4¢ → 75¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 74.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$34.79 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $415.71 | $398.93 | -$16.77 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $28.09 | $29.67 | +$1.78 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $10.36 | $10.5 | +$0.14 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Invested
$2,455.16
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$34.79
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$415.71
Value
$398.93
PnL
-$16.77
Record
72%
6827-2619 (9446)
Invested
$28.09
Value
$29.67
PnL
+$1.78
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.36
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.