Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 1 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?

1 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (7%) · Yes at 48¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 1

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 7%

Total Value

$86.9K

Combined PnL

$442.09

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 15 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$53.1K

Total Shares111,750

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No14 traders

Total Value$33.8K

Total Shares64,682

Combined PnL-$639.37

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Yesavg 46.5¢	$52.0K	$53.1K	+$1.1K	57% 13-10 (23)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 53.8¢	$9.2K	$9.0K	-$227.41	49% 12972-13528 (26500)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 53¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	-$150	47% 2567-2854 (5421)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 52.9¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$105.25	72% 6820-2615 (9435)
CA Cannae	Noavg 53.1¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$38.47	53% 16099-14267 (30366)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 53.2¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$35.55	50% 25589-25416 (51005)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$38.07	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$40	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
us391	Noavg 52¢	$576.54	$582.08	+$5.54	51% 1708-1673 (3381)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 53.2¢	$188.51	$186.14	-$2.37	56% 14151-10960 (25111)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 53.5¢	$179.92	$174.75	-$5.16	57% 29194-21587 (50781)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 53¢	$106	$104	-$2	54% 4939-4169 (9108)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$55.62	$54.99	-$0.63	50% 33800-33366 (67166)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 52¢	$44.13	$44.13	+$0	48% 8863-9449 (18312)
FO forecastication4<$100	Noavg 52¢	$30.16	$30.16	+$0	49% 1196-1222 (2418)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Yes

Invested

$51,999.79

Value

$53.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$9,185.34

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$227.41

Record

49%

12972-13528 (26500)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$7,950

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$150

Record

47%

2567-2854 (5421)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$5,967.21

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$105.25

Record

72%

6820-2615 (9435)

Cannae

Invested

$3,160.29

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$38.47

Record

53%

16099-14267 (30366)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,538.47

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$35.55

Record

50%

25589-25416 (51005)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,340.37

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$38.07

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$40

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

us391

Invested

$576.54

Value

$582.08

PnL

+$5.54

Record

51%

1708-1673 (3381)

ghorrock

Invested

$188.51

Value

$186.14

PnL

-$2.37

Record

56%

14151-10960 (25111)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$179.92

Value

$174.75

PnL

-$5.16

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$106

Value

$104

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

4939-4169 (9108)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$55.62

Value

$54.99

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

33800-33366 (67166)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$44.13

Value

$44.13

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

8863-9449 (18312)

forecastication4<$100

Invested

$30.16

Value

$30.16

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1196-1222 (2418)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 15 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.