Real Betis Balompié vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 71¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$184.55

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 71¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares5,617

Combined PnL+$368.63

Over6 traders

Total Value$398.25

Total Shares1,471

Combined PnL-$184.08

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 57.9¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$379.2	48% 933-1004 (1937)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 32.4¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$185.63	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.4¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$228.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.8¢	$249.97	$292.35	+$42.38
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 71¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$157.9	58% 1027-753 (1780)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 63.4¢	$775.99	$864.77	+$88.78	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 41¢	$464.94	$300.51	-$164.43	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
RN1	Underavg 69¢	$241.5	$257.25	+$15.75	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
ComingBack	Underavg 57¢	$147.26	$189.89	+$42.63	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$28.29	$36.42	+$8.12	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$36.12	$22.79	-$13.33	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 33.9¢	$26.5	$20.69	-$5.81	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$9.56	$9.79	+$0.58	92% 2994-244 (3238)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41.8¢	$17.27	$8.05	-$9.23	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 68¢	$2.13	$2.3	+$0.17	49% 8037-8396 (16433)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,402.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$379.2

Record

48%

933-1004 (1937)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,496.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$185.63

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

Both legs:

Over$1,246.9532.4¢-$228.01

Under$249.9762.8¢+$42.38

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$1,565.22

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$157.9

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$775.99

Value

$864.77

PnL

+$88.78

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$464.94

Value

$300.51

PnL

-$164.43

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

RN1

Under

Invested

$241.5

Value

$257.25

PnL

+$15.75

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$147.26

Value

$189.89

PnL

+$42.63

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.29

Value

$36.42

PnL

+$8.12

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.12

Value

$22.79

PnL

-$13.33

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.5

Value

$20.69

PnL

-$5.81

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.56

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$0.58

Record

92%

2994-244 (3238)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.27

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$9.23

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.