Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Málaga CF (71%) · Málaga CF at 71¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Real Betis Balompié30¢Málaga CF70¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Málaga CF

Consensus Traders

Málaga CF 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$8.46

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMálaga CF at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Málaga CF

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Betis Balompié30%

Málaga CF71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Málaga CF5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,226

Combined PnL-$6.69

Real Betis Balompié2 traders

Total Value$146.7

Total Shares573

Combined PnL-$1.77

Málaga CF — 71%Real Betis Balompié — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Málaga CFavg 75¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$147.46	58% 1027-753 (1780)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 26.7¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$94.57	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
└ Real Betis Balompié leg	Real Betis Balompiéavg 26.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$133.94
└ Málaga CF leg	Málaga CFavg 69¢	$388.12	$427.5	+$39.38
UP UpTheBlues	Málaga CFavg 65.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$82.7	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
0xheavy888	Málaga CFavg 70.5¢	$564	$619.99	+$56	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
AN Anon455CTR	Real Betis Balompiéavg 25¢	$125	$120	-$5	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Real Betis Balompiéavg 25¢	$23.47	$26.7	+$3.23	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Málaga CFavg 71¢	$7.1	$7.6	+$0.5	48% 2404-2633 (5037)
GH ghorrock<$100	Málaga CFavg 71¢	$17.31	$7.02	+$1.56	57% 13827-10598 (24425)

MinevaJ

Málaga CF

Invested

$2,577.72

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$147.46

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$1,734.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$94.57

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

Both legs:

Real Betis Balompié$1,346.0626.7¢-$133.94

Málaga CF$388.1269¢+$39.38

UpTheBlues

Málaga CF

Invested

$1,122.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$82.7

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

0xheavy888

Málaga CF

Invested

$564

Value

$619.99

PnL

+$56

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

Anon455CTR

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$125

Value

$120

PnL

-$5

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Real Betis Balompié

Invested

$23.47

Value

$26.7

PnL

+$3.23

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

ameisgoat11<$100

Málaga CF

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

ghorrock<$100

Málaga CF

Invested

$17.31

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$1.56

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

Research grade

NeutralMálaga CF at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Málaga CF

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Málaga CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.