Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Málaga CF, while the market favors Real Betis Balompié (52%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Málaga CF (83%) · Málaga CF at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Málaga CF
6
Málaga CF 83%
$2.5K
-$51.53
50¢ → 48.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMálaga CF at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Real Betis Balompié 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Málaga CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Málaga CFavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $980 | -$20 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Málaga CFavg 50¢ | $750 | $735 | -$15 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
CA CannaeCTR | Málaga CFavg 50¢ | $578.44 | $566.88 | -$11.57 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Málaga CFavg 50¢ | $221.5 | $217.07 | -$4.43 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Málaga CFavg 49.8¢ | $34.09 | $33.52 | -$0.57 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Real Betis Balompiéavg 48¢ | $3.36 | $3.57 | +$0.04 | 55% 1723-1416 (3139) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$980
PnL
-$20
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$750
Value
$735
PnL
-$15
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$578.44
Value
$566.88
PnL
-$11.57
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$221.5
Value
$217.07
PnL
-$4.43
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Invested
$34.09
Value
$33.52
PnL
-$0.57
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.57
PnL
+$0.04
Record
55%
1723-1416 (3139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.