Will Málaga CF win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (48%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 48%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$159.16

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 97.4¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 21 top traders (48%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares8,181

Combined PnL-$108.64

Yes11 traders

Total Value$965.64

Total Shares10,435

Combined PnL-$50.52

No — 48%Yes — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 91¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$20.01	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 90¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$0	67% 2635-1282 (3917)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 92.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$128.62	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$677.39	$631.85	-$45.54	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 92.3¢	$427.35	$436.64	+$9.29	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 91.9¢	$263.02	$257.49	-$5.53	53% 2185-1930 (4115)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 90¢	$246.87	$249.61	+$2.74	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$1.8K	$188.2	-$32.51	58% 1027-753 (1780)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$70.43	$88.03	+$17.61	62% 13712-8576 (22288)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$48.48	$42.63	-$5.85	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$25	$31.25	+$6.25	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.2	$18.1	-$0.1	51% 1453-1400 (2853)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$12.68	$14.09	+$1.4	39% 424-670 (1094)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 90¢	$12.83	$12.83	-$0	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 97¢	$10	$9.43	-$0.57	67% 23343-11749 (35092)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$5.68	$6.74	+$1.06	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.71	$1.9	+$0.19	53% 728-642 (1370)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.1	$1.58	+$0.47	48% 933-1004 (1937)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.45	$0.9	+$0.45	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.48	$0.6	+$0.12	51% 6015-5713 (11728)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.5	-$0.03	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

RN1

Invested

$2,734.13

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$20.01

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

2635-1282 (3917)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,345.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$128.62

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$677.39

Value

$631.85

PnL

-$45.54

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$427.35

Value

$436.64

PnL

+$9.29

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$263.02

Value

$257.49

PnL

-$5.53

Record

53%

2185-1930 (4115)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$246.87

Value

$249.61

PnL

+$2.74

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,777.72

Value

$188.2

PnL

-$32.51

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.43

Value

$88.03

PnL

+$17.61

Record

62%

13712-8576 (22288)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$48.48

Value

$42.63

PnL

-$5.85

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$31.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1453-1400 (2853)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.68

Value

$14.09

PnL

+$1.4

Record

39%

424-670 (1094)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$12.83

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$0.57

Record

67%

23343-11749 (35092)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

728-642 (1370)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.47

Record

48%

933-1004 (1937)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.12

Record

51%

6015-5713 (11728)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 21 top traders (48%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.