Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Málaga CF end in a draw?

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$28.43

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 89.5¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares11,651

Combined PnL+$23.86

Yes8 traders

Total Value$168.36

Total Shares920

Combined PnL+$4.57

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 84¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$0.5	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
AN Anon455	Noavg 84¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$0	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$3.1K	$2.1K	$-1.0K	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.5¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	$-1.0K
└ No leg	Noavg 84¢	$640.5	$690.06	+$49.56
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 83.6¢	$272.32	$273.71	+$1.39	53% 2185-1930 (4115)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 83.5¢	$231.87	$251.2	+$19.33	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$74.54	$74.4	+$1.21	39% 424-670 (1094)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$66.69	$66.69	+$0	62% 13712-8576 (22288)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$52.55	$57.38	+$4.83	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
RN1<$100	Noavg 85¢	$54.42	$57	+$2.58	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 81¢	$29.86	$28.57	-$1.29	63% 1767-1049 (2816)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.5¢	$27.27	$26.67	-$0.6	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 80¢	$25	$25.16	+$0.16	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$5.24	$5.52	+$0.28	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4	$3.8	-$0.2	58% 1027-753 (1780)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.24	$3.24	+$0	53% 728-642 (1370)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$2.25	$2.67	+$0.42	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$2.55	$2.4	-$0.15	48% 933-1004 (1937)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$5,579.39

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$0.5

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

Anon455

Invested

$3,515.65

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,110.32

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Both legs:

Yes$2,469.8216.5¢$-1.0K

No$640.584¢+$49.56

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$272.32

Value

$273.71

PnL

+$1.39

Record

53%

2185-1930 (4115)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$231.87

Value

$251.2

PnL

+$19.33

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$74.54

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$1.21

Record

39%

424-670 (1094)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.69

Value

$66.69

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

13712-8576 (22288)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.55

Value

$57.38

PnL

+$4.83

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

RN1<$100

Invested

$54.42

Value

$57

PnL

+$2.58

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$29.86

Value

$28.57

PnL

-$1.29

Record

63%

1767-1049 (2816)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.27

Value

$26.67

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

foooool<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

728-642 (1370)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

933-1004 (1937)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.