Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$6.24
75.1¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $944.23 | $955.08 | +$10.85 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 75¢ | $622.54 | $626.69 | +$4.15 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 24¢ | $321.69 | $328.39 | +$6.7 | |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Yesavg 75¢ | $504.22 | $510.95 | +$6.72 | 53% 2174-1925 (4099) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 26.3¢ | $171.55 | $171.48 | -$0.07 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
 0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 | 70% 335-144 (479) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $19.8 | $19.01 | -$0.4 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $0.42 | $0.4 | -$0.02 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
Invested
$944.23
Value
$955.08
PnL
+$10.85
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Both legs:
Invested
$504.22
Value
$510.95
PnL
+$6.72
Record
53%
2174-1925 (4099)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$171.55
Value
$171.48
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816<$100Invested
$50
Value
$50
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
335-144 (479)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.