FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 7.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 84¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$254.76

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 83.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,508

Combined PnL-$247.41

Over1 trader

Total Value$281.9

Total Shares1,446

Combined PnL-$7.35

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 80¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$302.86	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Under leg	Underavg 80¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$15.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 9.1¢	$256.23	$574.51	+$318.28
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 79.3¢	$4.2K	$1.9K	+$29.14	58% 1027-753 (1780)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 91¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$258.81	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
AN Anon455	Underavg 79¢	$395.52	$380.69	-$14.83	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 20¢	$289.26	$281.9	-$7.35	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 80¢	$200	$201.25	+$1.25	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 93¢	$57.66	$47.43	-$10.23	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 76¢	$19.82	$21.51	+$1.68	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 78¢	$19.69	$19.55	+$3.01	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 65¢	$5.11	$6.49	+$1.38	59% 10257-7240 (17497)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,529.54

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$302.86

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Under$2,273.3180¢-$15.43

Over$256.239.1¢+$318.28

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$4,169.43

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$29.14

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,051.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$258.81

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$395.52

Value

$380.69

PnL

-$14.83

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$289.26

Value

$281.9

PnL

-$7.35

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$57.66

Value

$47.43

PnL

-$10.23

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$19.82

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$1.68

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$19.69

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$3.01

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$5.11

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$1.38

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.