FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 6.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 65¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$194.98

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 65¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares16,237

Combined PnL+$19.75

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,356

Combined PnL-$214.73

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62.3¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$140.87	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 60.4¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$63.89	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 38.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$59.27	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$61.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.8¢	$503.57	$501	-$2.57
MI MinevaJCTR	Overavg 42¢	$3.8K	$1.3K	-$214.73	58% 1027-753 (1780)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 58.1¢	$777.68	$795.21	+$17.53	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 84¢	$294.67	$262.15	-$32.52	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
FO foooool	Underavg 65.6¢	$150.41	$133.04	-$17.37	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 81.9¢	$94.69	$66.46	-$28.23	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 86¢	$13.76	$14.24	+$0.48	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 47¢	$9.22	$11.68	+$2.45	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 72¢	$6.24	$6.68	+$0.43	55% 2937-2368 (5305)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$4,763.84

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$140.87

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,214.89

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$63.89

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,923.44

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$59.27

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Both legs:

Over$1,419.8738.8¢+$61.84

Under$503.5759.8¢-$2.57

MinevaJCTR

Over

Invested

$3,809.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$214.73

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$777.68

Value

$795.21

PnL

+$17.53

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$294.67

Value

$262.15

PnL

-$32.52

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

foooool

Under

Invested

$150.41

Value

$133.04

PnL

-$17.37

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$94.69

Value

$66.46

PnL

-$28.23

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$13.76

Value

$14.24

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$9.22

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$2.45

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$0.43

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.