Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 5.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 38¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 37.5¢

-33% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,684

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,819

Combined PnL+$523

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 67.3¢	$2.1K	$972.2	$-1.1K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.7K	$856.97	-$580.9	58% 1027-753 (1780)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 50.4¢	$1.1K	$686.39	-$379.06	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
AN Anon455	Overavg 34.7¢	$266.56	$522.79	+$256.23	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 34.3¢	$243.83	$482.65	+$238.82	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$346.94	$285.12	-$61.81	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$241.75	$183.03	-$58.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 68¢	$105.19	$102.1	-$3.09
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 32¢	$183.76	$180.98	-$2.78	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
Socialista	Overavg 69¢	$166.29	$165.09	-$1.2	63% 2700-1603 (4303)
MR MrBentlyCTR	Underavg 65¢	$130	$127	-$3	53% 545-487 (1032)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 71.4¢	$85.72	$93.6	+$7.88	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 36¢	$45.16	$81.79	+$36.63	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 66¢	$27.06	$12.91	-$14.15	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$8.1	$8.25	+$0.15	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 69¢	$21.66	$8.15	-$7.47	53% 2197-1937 (4134)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,077.87

Value

$972.2

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

MinevaJCTR

Under

Invested

$1,705.84

Value

$856.97

PnL

-$580.9

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,065.45

Value

$686.39

PnL

-$379.06

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$266.56

Value

$522.79

PnL

+$256.23

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$243.83

Value

$482.65

PnL

+$238.82

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$346.94

Value

$285.12

PnL

-$61.81

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Both legs:

Under$241.7544.9¢-$58.72

Over$105.1968¢-$3.09

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$183.76

Value

$180.98

PnL

-$2.78

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

Socialista

Over

Invested

$166.29

Value

$165.09

PnL

-$1.2

Record

63%

2700-1603 (4303)

MrBentlyCTR

Under

Invested

$130

Value

$127

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

545-487 (1032)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.72

Value

$93.6

PnL

+$7.88

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$45.16

Value

$81.79

PnL

+$36.63

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.06

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$14.15

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$21.66

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$7.47

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.