Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$194.27

Smart Money Entry

33.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$903.33

Total Shares3,398

Combined PnL-$239.66

Over4 traders

Total Value$678.92

Total Shares927

Combined PnL+$45.39

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 34¢	$889.4	$640.89	-$248.51	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
AN Anon455	Overavg 63.5¢	$408.69	$408.56	-$0.13	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$191.99	$199.99	+$12	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$123.99	$120.99	+$1
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$68	$79	+$11
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 75.7¢	$123.75	$150.31	+$26.56	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 34.4¢	$89.46	$95.46	+$6.25	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.4¢	$57.84	$63.84	+$6
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$31.62	$31.62	+$0.26
BIessCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$93	$93	+$0	45% 288-352 (640)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$76.16	$85.12	+$8.96	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$65.01	$66	+$0.98	39% 426-672 (1098)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 84.3¢	$51.1	$60.57	+$9.47	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 84¢	$49.98	$59.47	+$9.49	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 35.7¢	$10.7	$11.4	+$0.7	51% 1460-1410 (2870)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Underavg 10.1¢	$8.73	$6.93	-$1.8	58% 1027-753 (1780)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$889.4

Value

$640.89

PnL

-$248.51

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$408.69

Value

$408.56

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$191.99

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$12

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Both legs:

Invested

$123.75

Value

$150.31

PnL

+$26.56

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$89.46

Value

$95.46

PnL

+$6.25

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Both legs:

Invested

$93

Value

$93

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

288-352 (640)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.16

Value

$85.12

PnL

+$8.96

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.01

Value

$66

PnL

+$0.98

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$51.1

Value

$60.57

PnL

+$9.47

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$49.98

Value

$59.47

PnL

+$9.49

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.7

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.73

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$1.8

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.