FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

Total Value

$18.7K

Combined PnL

-$83.25

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares17,288

Combined PnL+$645.81

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares18,100

Combined PnL-$729.05

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$10.9K	$10.9K	+$5.45	98% 13088-209 (13297)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 82.5¢	$4.5K	$5.4K	+$659.91	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
StudyPredictionCTR	Underavg 18¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$240	53% 4584-4001 (8585)
AN Anon455	Overavg 83¢	$415	$390	-$25	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 93.4¢	$230.08	$233.34	+$3.26	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Underavg 9.6¢	$353.27	$191.79	-$161.48	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
CA Cannae	Overavg 80¢	$139.77	$142.78	+$3.01	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 83.6¢	$51.61	$51.52	-$0.09	53% 2197-1937 (4134)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 80¢	$22.06	$26.14	-$0.74	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Underavg 4.9¢	$4.51	$4.83	+$0.32	58% 1027-753 (1780)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 6.6¢	$384.65	$2.92	-$381.73	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 17.3¢	$427.41	$1.24	-$426.17	59% 45969-32302 (78271)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$10,892.24

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$5.45

Record

98%

13088-209 (13297)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$4,474.86

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$659.91

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

StudyPredictionCTR

Under

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$240

Record

53%

4584-4001 (8585)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$415

Value

$390

PnL

-$25

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$230.08

Value

$233.34

PnL

+$3.26

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LilybaeumCTR

Under

Invested

$353.27

Value

$191.79

PnL

-$161.48

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$139.77

Value

$142.78

PnL

+$3.01

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$51.61

Value

$51.52

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$22.06

Value

$26.14

PnL

-$0.74

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

1027-753 (1780)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$384.65

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$381.73

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$427.41

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$426.17

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.