FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 0.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$7.5K
$-5.5K
99.1¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Overavg 99¢ | $11.2K | $5.7K | $-5.5K | 53% 2082-1863 (3945) |
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$0.79 | 98% 13088-209 (13297) |
MI MinevaJ | Overavg 99¢ | $138.55 | $138.17 | -$0.38 | 58% 1027-753 (1780) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 98.9¢ | $64.02 | $64.71 | +$0.69 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.