FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: FC Barcelona O/U 4.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 67¢ · $600 held · ended Oct 31

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$600.28

Combined PnL

$84.55

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 66.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$371.52

Total Shares547

Combined PnL-$15.85

Over2 traders

Total Value$228.76

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$100.4

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 68.2¢	$305.61	$312.13	+$6.51	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
SocialistaCTR	Overavg 29¢	$87	$151.49	+$64.5	63% 2700-1603 (4303)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$41.36	$77.27	+$35.91	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Underavg 72¢	$39.54	$27.18	-$12.36	53% 5640-4979 (10619)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 72.1¢	$40.44	$26.16	-$9.76	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 70.8¢	$6.3	$6.05	-$0.25	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$305.61

Value

$312.13

PnL

+$6.51

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

SocialistaCTR

Over

Invested

$87

Value

$151.49

PnL

+$64.5

Record

63%

2700-1603 (4303)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.36

Value

$77.27

PnL

+$35.91

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Under

Invested

$39.54

Value

$27.18

PnL

-$12.36

Record

53%

5640-4979 (10619)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$40.44

Value

$26.16

PnL

-$9.76

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.