FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: FC Barcelona O/U 3.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 100¢ · $388 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$388.11
$58.41
57.4¢ → 100¢
+74% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Overavg 64¢ | $100 | $156.17 | +$56.17 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
 Socialista | Overavg 50¢ | $150 | $153 | +$3 | 63% 2700-1603 (4303) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $45.24 | $44.46 | -$0.78 | 64% 1125-646 (1771) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $16.52 | $16.23 | -$0.29 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 48.6¢ | $12.01 | $12.01 | -$0 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $5.93 | $6.25 | +$0.32 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Invested
$100
Value
$156.17
PnL
+$56.17
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
SocialistaInvested
$150
Value
$153
PnL
+$3
Record
63%
2700-1603 (4303)
Invested
$45.24
Value
$44.46
PnL
-$0.78
Record
64%
1125-646 (1771)
poshposh<$100Invested
$16.52
Value
$16.23
PnL
-$0.29
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$12.01
Value
$12.01
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$5.93
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.32
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.