FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: FC Barcelona O/U 1.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $701 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$701.01

Combined PnL

$370.57

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$574.6

Total Shares1,149

Combined PnL+$436.7

Over3 traders

Total Value$126.41

Total Shares211

Combined PnL-$66.13

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 12¢	$137.9	$574.6	+$436.7	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
Socialista	Overavg 90¢	$175.47	$97.49	-$77.99	63% 2700-1603 (4303)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 88¢	$8.16	$18.93	+$10.77	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 89¢	$8.9	$10	+$1.1	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$137.9

Value

$574.6

PnL

+$436.7

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Socialista

Over

Invested

$175.47

Value

$97.49

PnL

-$77.99

Record

63%

2700-1603 (4303)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$8.16

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$10.77

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.1

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.