FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: Deportivo Alavés O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $302 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$302.12
-$50.62
96¢ → 98.6¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 96¢ | $296.39 | $155.92 | -$140.47 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.2¢ | $7.36 | $87.08 | +$79.71 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.1¢ | $11.31 | $32.52 | +$21.21 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.8¢ | $16.92 | $15.69 | -$1.23 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $26.51 | $10.92 | -$9.84 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Invested
$296.39
Value
$155.92
PnL
-$140.47
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.36
Value
$87.08
PnL
+$79.71
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$11.31
Value
$32.52
PnL
+$21.21
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$16.92
Value
$15.69
PnL
-$1.23
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$26.51
Value
$10.92
PnL
-$9.84
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.