Spread: FC Barcelona (-3.5)

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Deportivo Alavés (100%) · Deportivo Alavés at 57¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 31

FC Barcelona43¢Deportivo Alavés57¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Deportivo Alavés

Consensus Traders

Deportivo Alavés 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.6K

Combined PnL

$50.9

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 57¢

-13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDeportivo Alavés at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Alavés

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Barcelona43%

Deportivo Alavés57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Deportivo Alavés9 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares40,832

Combined PnL+$50.9

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Alavés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDeportivo Alavés 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDeportivo Alavés 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDeportivo Alavés 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Deportivo Alavés 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Deportivo Alavésavg 65¢	$19.8K	$19.8K	-$7.68	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
HO Hongweiqian	Deportivo Alavésavg 67.4¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$85.48	49% 242-252 (494)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 64.9¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$52.38	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Deportivo Alavés leg	Deportivo Alavésavg 64.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$12.16
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 33.1¢	$890.45	$954.99	+$64.54
Reformedx	Deportivo Alavésavg 65¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$120	52% 831-778 (1609)
0xheavy888	Deportivo Alavésavg 66.4¢	$797.09	$815.99	+$18.9	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
HRTrading	Deportivo Alavésavg 65¢	$368.55	$371.39	+$2.84	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
GH ghorrock<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 64.8¢	$79.67	$65	+$0.38	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 65¢	$40.95	$42.84	+$1.89	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 66.5¢	$19.95	$19.8	-$0.15	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Deportivo Alavésavg 66¢	$6.6	$6.8	+$0.2	51% 1460-1410 (2870)

UpTheBlues

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$19,775.48

Value

$19.8K

PnL

-$7.68

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Hongweiqian

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$85.48

Record

49%

242-252 (494)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$2,707.43

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$52.38

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Deportivo Alavés$1,816.9964.9¢-$12.16

FC Barcelona$890.4533.1¢+$64.54

Reformedx

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$2,600

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$120

Record

52%

831-778 (1609)

0xheavy888

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$797.09

Value

$815.99

PnL

+$18.9

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

HRTrading

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$368.55

Value

$371.39

PnL

+$2.84

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

ghorrock<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$79.67

Value

$65

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$40.95

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$1.89

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

ameisgoat11<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$19.95

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Deportivo Alavés

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

Research grade

NeutralDeportivo Alavés at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Alavés

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Alavés. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDeportivo Alavés 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDeportivo Alavés 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDeportivo Alavés 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Deportivo Alavés 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Deportivo Alavés wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.