Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Barcelona (40%) · FC Barcelona at 99¢ · $27K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
FC Barcelona
5
FC Barcelona 40%
$26.8K
$1.3K
99.2¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Barcelona at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | FC Barcelonaavg 99.2¢ | $25.1K | $25.1K | +$18.33 | 53% 2068-1862 (3930) |
CA CannaeCTR | Deportivo Alavésavg 0.8¢ | $77.89 | $1.4K | +$1.3K | 53% 15887-14071 (29958) |
38 38791873984189 | FC Barcelonaavg 99.2¢ | $188.54 | $188.67 | -$0.15 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Deportivo Alavésavg 0.8¢ | $98.01 | $86.51 | -$11.5 | 59% 45388-31736 (77124) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Deportivo Alavésavg 0.8¢ | $0.19 | $3.35 | +$3.15 | 57% 13657-10450 (24107) |
Invested
$25,104.59
Value
$25.1K
PnL
+$18.33
Record
53%
2068-1862 (3930)
Invested
$77.89
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
53%
15887-14071 (29958)
Invested
$188.54
Value
$188.67
PnL
-$0.15
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
Invested
$98.01
Value
$86.51
PnL
-$11.5
Record
59%
45388-31736 (77124)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$3.15
Record
57%
13657-10450 (24107)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.