FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: Draw at halftime?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $955 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$955.49
$5.79
78¢ → 100¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Noavg 78¢ | $884.54 | $884.54 | +$0 | 53% 2197-1937 (4134) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $30.9 | $38.99 | +$8.09 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $31.96 | $31.96 | -$0.2 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $2.1 | $0.01 | -$2.1 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$884.54
Value
$884.54
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2197-1937 (4134)
Invested
$30.9
Value
$38.99
PnL
+$8.09
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$31.96
Value
$31.96
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.1
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.