Deportivo Alavés leading at halftime?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $47 held · ended Oct 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$46.63

Combined PnL

$0.1

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$43.55

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$0.34

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.08

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$0.24

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 93¢	$39.86	$26.72	+$0.29	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 93¢	$10.83	$10.89	+$0.06	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.94	$5.94	-$0	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$3.32	$3.08	-$0.24	55% 1747-1441 (3188)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$39.86

Value

$26.72

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.