FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$16.07

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,753

Combined PnL+$30.39

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.49

Total Shares447

Combined PnL-$14.32

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$1.67	98% 13088-209 (13297)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 97.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$33.07	82% 2398-544 (2942)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 89¢	$104.11	$100.86	-$3.25	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
fxwd12345<$100	Overavg 88¢	$26.39	$25.94	-$0.45	69% 1507-687 (2194)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$5.15	$4.5	-$0.65	95% 23031-1160 (24191)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$1.85	$2.28	+$0.42	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$6.75	$0.11	-$6.64	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$8.21	$0.1	-$8.11	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$3,329.67

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.67

Record

98%

13088-209 (13297)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$1,282.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$33.07

Record

82%

2398-544 (2942)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$104.11

Value

$100.86

PnL

-$3.25

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

fxwd12345<$100

Over

Invested

$26.39

Value

$25.94

PnL

-$0.45

Record

69%

1507-687 (2194)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$5.15

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.65

Record

95%

23031-1160 (24191)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.75

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$6.64

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.21

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$8.11

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.