Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 1 Deportivo Alavés?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.6K
-$95
94.5¢ → 90.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$48.75 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $108.87 | $72.93 | -$35.94 | 50% 2519-2501 (5020) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $46.08 | $44.41 | -$1.67 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $15.86 | $12.23 | -$3.63 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $14.6 | $9.56 | -$5.03 | 52% 4970-4612 (9582) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $0.05 | $0.07 | +$0.02 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$1,463.52
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$48.75
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$108.87
Value
$72.93
PnL
-$35.94
Record
50%
2519-2501 (5020)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$46.08
Value
$44.41
PnL
-$1.67
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$15.86
Value
$12.23
PnL
-$3.63
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$9.56
PnL
-$5.03
Record
52%
4970-4612 (9582)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.