Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Deportivo Alavés?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $748 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$747.81
$26.44
91.3¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB sbimbg | Noavg 91¢ | $364.28 | $372.26 | +$7.98 | 70% 3154-1363 (4517) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91¢ | $246.61 | $270.16 | +$23.55 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $40.94 | $41.39 | +$0.45 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $35.14 | $32.75 | -$2.39 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.02 | $17 | -$1.02 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $14.23 | $14.23 | +$0 | 52% 4970-4612 (9582) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2.15 | $0.02 | -$2.12 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$364.28
Value
$372.26
PnL
+$7.98
Record
70%
3154-1363 (4517)
Invested
$246.61
Value
$270.16
PnL
+$23.55
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$40.94
Value
$41.39
PnL
+$0.45
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$35.14
Value
$32.75
PnL
-$2.39
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.02
Value
$17
PnL
-$1.02
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$14.23
Value
$14.23
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4970-4612 (9582)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.12
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.