Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Deportivo Alavés?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $493 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$493.15
-$40.58
91¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB sbimbg | Noavg 91¢ | $447.82 | $450.28 | +$2.46 | 70% 3154-1363 (4517) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $14.54 | $14.79 | +$0.24 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $14.08 | $14 | -$0.08 | 52% 4970-4612 (9582) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $13.8 | $13.73 | -$0.07 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $42.44 | $0.35 | -$42.09 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.05 | $0.01 | -$1.04 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$447.82
Value
$450.28
PnL
+$2.46
Record
70%
3154-1363 (4517)
Invested
$14.54
Value
$14.79
PnL
+$0.24
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Invested
$14.08
Value
$14
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
4970-4612 (9582)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$13.73
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$42.44
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$42.09
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.04
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.