Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Deportivo Alavés?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $68 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$68.44
$1.27
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $32.37 | $32.72 | +$0.36 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $14.67 | $14.79 | +$0.11 | 52% 4970-4612 (9582) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $13.38 | $13.99 | +$0.61 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $6.75 | $6.94 | +$0.19 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Invested
$32.37
Value
$32.72
PnL
+$0.36
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$14.67
Value
$14.79
PnL
+$0.11
Record
52%
4970-4612 (9582)
Invested
$13.38
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.61
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$6.94
PnL
+$0.19
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.