FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: Deportivo Alavés O/U 2.5 Corners
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$2.6K
$267.82
52.1¢ → 54.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Overavg 54.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$69.22 | 59% 10160-7156 (17316) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Overavg 49¢ | $658.58 | $792.99 | +$127.69 | 53% 403-355 (758) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $251.12 | $278.44 | +$27.32 | 50% 33395-32964 (66359) |
S- S-Works | Overavg 48¢ | $209.54 | $257.56 | +$43.65 | 69% 2051-937 (2988) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $7.86 | $7.32 | -$0.36 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.95 | +$0.3 | 55% 8303-6696 (14999) |
poshposhInvested
$1,193.48
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$69.22
Record
59%
10160-7156 (17316)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$658.58
Value
$792.99
PnL
+$127.69
Record
53%
403-355 (758)
Invested
$251.12
Value
$278.44
PnL
+$27.32
Record
50%
33395-32964 (66359)
Invested
$209.54
Value
$257.56
PnL
+$43.65
Record
69%
2051-937 (2988)
Invested
$7.86
Value
$7.32
PnL
-$0.36
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.3
Record
55%
8303-6696 (14999)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.