FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 51¢ · $829 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$829.11
$37.17
48.2¢ → 50.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
91h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BB bbbetk | Yesavg 48¢ | $720 | $757.5 | +$37.5 | 51% 155-147 (302) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $37.8 | $38.18 | +$0.38 | 52% 377-342 (719) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $20.4 | $20.2 | -$0.2 | 53% 15932-14110 (30042) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $10.78 | $10.3 | -$0.48 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $2.96 | $2.93 | -$0.03 | 50% 24911-24608 (49519) |
Invested
$720
Value
$757.5
PnL
+$37.5
Record
51%
155-147 (302)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$37.8
Value
$38.18
PnL
+$0.38
Record
52%
377-342 (719)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$20.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
15932-14110 (30042)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$10.3
PnL
-$0.48
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$2.96
Value
$2.93
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
24911-24608 (49519)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.