Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$16.19

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 87¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$948.8

Total Shares1,091

Combined PnL+$5.07

No3 traders

Total Value$445.65

Total Shares3,428

Combined PnL-$21.26

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 86.5¢	$935.13	$940.3	+$5.17	—
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 84.1¢	$798.25	$798.78	+$0.53	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84.1¢	$525.38	$543.3	+$17.92
└ No leg	Noavg 13.9¢	$272.78	$255.48	-$17.39
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 13.6¢	$451.97	$431.26	-$20.71	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$15.33	$14.24	-$0.55	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Yesavg 87.5¢	$8.75	$8.5	-$0.1	62% 50-31 (81)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$0.15	$0.15	+$0	53% 15655-13829 (29484)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$935.13

Value

$940.3

PnL

+$5.17

Record

—

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$798.25

Value

$798.78

PnL

+$0.53

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Yes$525.3884.1¢+$17.92

No$272.7813.9¢-$17.39

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$451.97

Value

$431.26

PnL

-$20.71

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$15.33

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

62%

50-31 (81)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15655-13829 (29484)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.