Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Yongin FC vs. Seoul E-Land FC: Yongin FC O/U 1.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 42¢ · $967 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$966.65
$552.66
42.6¢ → 42¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA Vampiro1CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $476.19 | $475.95 | +$275.95 | 77% 3292-998 (4290) |
RO Rocko33CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $200 | $475.71 | +$273.81 | 64% 1104-632 (1736) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $5 | +$2.9 | 85% 5274-898 (6172) |
Invested
$476.19
Value
$475.95
PnL
+$275.95
Record
77%
3292-998 (4290)
Invested
$200
Value
$475.71
PnL
+$273.81
Record
64%
1104-632 (1736)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.9
Record
85%
5274-898 (6172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.