Will Seoul E-Land FC win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $468 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$467.95
-$14.69
49.9¢ → 95¢
+90% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocko33 | Noavg 38¢ | $200 | $213.16 | +$13.16 | 64% 1104-632 (1736) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 88¢ | $132 | $125.25 | -$6.75 | 59% 45710-32050 (77760) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 58.7¢ | $69.6 | $51.95 | -$17.65 | 49% 7853-8150 (16003) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $40.32 | $39.33 | -$0.99 | 49% 19132-19523 (38655) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $23.36 | $20.3 | -$3.07 | 50% 33342-32905 (66247) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $13.3 | $14.18 | +$0.88 | 85% 5256-898 (6154) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $2.99 | $3.01 | +$0.02 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $1.06 | $0.77 | -$0.29 | 59% 10106-7093 (17199) |
Invested
$200
Value
$213.16
PnL
+$13.16
Record
64%
1104-632 (1736)
Invested
$132
Value
$125.25
PnL
-$6.75
Record
59%
45710-32050 (77760)
Invested
$69.6
Value
$51.95
PnL
-$17.65
Record
49%
7853-8150 (16003)
Invested
$40.32
Value
$39.33
PnL
-$0.99
Record
49%
19132-19523 (38655)
Invested
$23.36
Value
$20.3
PnL
-$3.07
Record
50%
33342-32905 (66247)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$13.3
Value
$14.18
PnL
+$0.88
Record
85%
5256-898 (6154)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.99
Value
$3.01
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.06
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$0.29
Record
59%
10106-7093 (17199)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.