FC Seoul vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$37.11

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,777

Combined PnL-$41.37

Over3 traders

Total Value$665.18

Total Shares1,339

Combined PnL+$4.25

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Underavg 51.9¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$40.78	51% 1708-1673 (3381)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 48¢	$446.98	$452.01	+$5.03	50% 25589-25416 (51005)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$200.51	$199.46	-$1.05	59% 46770-33051 (79821)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$104.08	$105.1	+$1.02	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 52¢	$85.58	$83.93	-$1.65	58% 5882-4315 (10197)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$13.44	$13.72	+$0.28	49% 12972-13528 (26500)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.04	$2.08	+$0.04	53% 5545-4956 (10501)

us391

Under

Invested

$2,286.88

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$40.78

Record

51%

1708-1673 (3381)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$446.98

Value

$452.01

PnL

+$5.03

Record

50%

25589-25416 (51005)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$200.51

Value

$199.46

PnL

-$1.05

Record

59%

46770-33051 (79821)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$104.08

Value

$105.1

PnL

+$1.02

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$85.58

Value

$83.93

PnL

-$1.65

Record

58%

5882-4315 (10197)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.72

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

12972-13528 (26500)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

5545-4956 (10501)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.