Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Seoul win on 2026-11-01?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 44¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 1

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 43.5¢

-18% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares35,854

Combined PnL$-3.3K

No1 trader

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,467

Combined PnL+$67.01

Yes — 92%No — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 53.3¢	$12.6K	$10.3K	$-2.1K	59% 46770-33051 (79821)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 54¢	$3.8K	$3.1K	-$700	47% 2567-2854 (5421)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 56¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$67.01	49% 252-262 (514)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 49.3¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$170.1	50% 25589-25416 (51005)
FO forecastication4CTR	Yesavg 54¢	$1.0K	$830.72	-$188.8	49% 1196-1222 (2418)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 52.3¢	$254.49	$212.92	-$41.56	53% 16099-14267 (30366)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 47.2¢	$196.43	$180.06	-$16.37	57% 29194-21587 (50781)
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$134.72	$108.52	-$26.2	51% 6057-5778 (11835)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$69.66	$56.76	-$12.9	53% 5545-4956 (10501)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.1¢	$53.19	$47.69	-$5.5	48% 8863-9449 (18312)
FL flashclubCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$45.5	$44	-$1.5	71% 68-28 (96)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$9.68	$9.68	+$0	50% 7120-7150 (14270)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,649.22

Value

$10.3K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

59%

46770-33051 (79821)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,780

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$700

Record

47%

2567-2854 (5421)

Kyn008

Invested

$2,501.59

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$67.01

Record

49%

252-262 (514)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,888.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$170.1

Record

50%

25589-25416 (51005)

forecastication4CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,019.52

Value

$830.72

PnL

-$188.8

Record

49%

1196-1222 (2418)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$254.49

Value

$212.92

PnL

-$41.56

Record

53%

16099-14267 (30366)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.43

Value

$180.06

PnL

-$16.37

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.72

Value

$108.52

PnL

-$26.2

Record

51%

6057-5778 (11835)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.66

Value

$56.76

PnL

-$12.9

Record

53%

5545-4956 (10501)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.19

Value

$47.69

PnL

-$5.5

Record

48%

8863-9449 (18312)

flashclubCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.5

Value

$44

PnL

-$1.5

Record

71%

68-28 (96)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7120-7150 (14270)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.