Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 28¢ · $696 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 33%
2 arb excluded
$696.25
-$5.32
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008CTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $185.46 | $188.77 | +$3.31 | 49% 252-262 (514) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $168.52 | $179.04 | +$10.52 | 53% 16099-14267 (30366) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $103.85 | $120.83 | +$16.99 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 80¢ | $64.67 | $58.2 | -$6.47 | |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $439.8 | $177.99 | -$33 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 80¢ | $142.39 | $127.26 | -$32.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $50.77 | $50.73 | -$0.79 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 74.9¢ | $89.02 | $84.94 | -$4.09 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $70.07 | $65.52 | -$4.55 | 51% 6524-6186 (12710) |
Invested
$185.46
Value
$188.77
PnL
+$3.31
Record
49%
252-262 (514)
Invested
$168.52
Value
$179.04
PnL
+$10.52
Record
53%
16099-14267 (30366)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$439.8
Value
$177.99
PnL
-$33
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.02
Value
$84.94
PnL
-$4.09
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
Invested
$70.07
Value
$65.52
PnL
-$4.55
Record
51%
6524-6186 (12710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.