Will FC Seoul vs. Incheon United FC end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$7.58
71¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71.2¢ | $583.57 | $581.73 | -$3.82 | 50% 25589-25416 (51005) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $339.23 | $340.84 | +$1.62 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 72¢ | $165.51 | $167.92 | +$2.41 | 53% 16099-14267 (30366) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $87.4 | $94.77 | +$7.37 | 59% 46770-33051 (79821) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.7 | +$0 | 52% 7473-6774 (14247) |
Invested
$583.57
Value
$581.73
PnL
-$3.82
Record
50%
25589-25416 (51005)
VeryLucky888Invested
$339.23
Value
$340.84
PnL
+$1.62
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
Invested
$165.51
Value
$167.92
PnL
+$2.41
Record
53%
16099-14267 (30366)
Invested
$87.4
Value
$94.77
PnL
+$7.37
Record
59%
46770-33051 (79821)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
7473-6774 (14247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.