FC Seoul vs. Incheon United FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $547 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$546.75
$154.79
49.7¢ → 74¢
+49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $415.33 | $468.21 | +$154.88 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $55.42 | $51.99 | -$3.43 | 50% 11162-10968 (22130) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $16.22 | $17.94 | +$1.72 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $6.99 | $8.61 | +$1.62 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$415.33
Value
$468.21
PnL
+$154.88
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$55.42
Value
$51.99
PnL
-$3.43
Record
50%
11162-10968 (22130)
Invested
$16.22
Value
$17.94
PnL
+$1.72
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
poshposh<$100Invested
$6.99
Value
$8.61
PnL
+$1.62
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.