Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 84¢ · $763 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$762.88
$71.2
65.2¢ → 83.5¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 65.9¢ | $540.34 | $602.41 | +$62.07 | 59% 45710-32050 (77760) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $58.78 | $72.01 | +$13.23 | 59% 10106-7093 (17199) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $28.2 | $27.84 | -$0.36 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $20.59 | $26.21 | +$5.63 | 49% 7853-8150 (16003) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $33.67 | $24.12 | -$9.56 | 58% 28639-21134 (49773) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $7.05 | $6.62 | -$0.43 | 58% 41809-30357 (72166) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.68 | +$0.63 | 58% 18628-13694 (32322) |
Invested
$540.34
Value
$602.41
PnL
+$62.07
Record
59%
45710-32050 (77760)
poshposh<$100Invested
$58.78
Value
$72.01
PnL
+$13.23
Record
59%
10106-7093 (17199)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$28.2
Value
$27.84
PnL
-$0.36
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
Invested
$20.59
Value
$26.21
PnL
+$5.63
Record
49%
7853-8150 (16003)
Invested
$33.67
Value
$24.12
PnL
-$9.56
Record
58%
28639-21134 (49773)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.05
Value
$6.62
PnL
-$0.43
Record
58%
41809-30357 (72166)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.63
Record
58%
18628-13694 (32322)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.