Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 30¢ · $252 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$252.14
$6.12
Research grade
NeutralYes at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $113.68 | $113.58 | -$0.1 | 59% 45710-32050 (77760) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $72.63 | $72.63 | +$0 | 54% 4878-4108 (8986) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 53.3¢ | $21.84 | $26.24 | +$4.4 | 49% 7853-8150 (16003) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $23.48 | $24.36 | +$0.88 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $8.09 | $8.93 | +$0.84 | 59% 10106-7093 (17199) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.3 | $6.4 | +$0.1 | 58% 41809-30357 (72166) |
Invested
$113.68
Value
$113.58
PnL
-$0.1
Record
59%
45710-32050 (77760)
Invested
$72.63
Value
$72.63
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4878-4108 (8986)
Invested
$21.84
Value
$26.24
PnL
+$4.4
Record
49%
7853-8150 (16003)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.48
Value
$24.36
PnL
+$0.88
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.09
Value
$8.93
PnL
+$0.84
Record
59%
10106-7093 (17199)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
41809-30357 (72166)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.