Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Gwangju FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: O/U 0.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $867 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$866.92

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

20.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$860.74

Total Shares861

Combined PnL+$5.47

Under8 traders

Total Value$6.17

Total Shares12,332

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA Jackenxand	Overavg 99.9¢	$668.97	$669.31	+$0.33	97% 2620-91 (2711)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Overavg 97.3¢	$191.3	$191.43	+$5.13	85% 5278-901 (6179)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 20¢	$1.1K	$2.63	$-1.1K	50% 33354-32918 (66272)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 19.3¢	$499.42	$1.3	-$498.13	59% 45758-32100 (77858)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 23¢	$400	$0.87	-$399.13	53% 3186-2810 (5996)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 22¢	$345.2	$0.79	-$344.41	59% 30461-21177 (51638)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 17¢	$116.81	$0.34	-$116.46	49% 7902-8215 (16117)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 17.3¢	$78	$0.23	-$77.78	59% 10128-7124 (17252)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$3.36	$0.01	-$3.35	46% 429-494 (923)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 4.4¢	$0.53	$0.01	-$0.52	47% 4556-5064 (9620)

Jackenxand

Over

Invested

$668.97

Value

$669.31

PnL

+$0.33

Record

97%

2620-91 (2711)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Over

Invested

$191.3

Value

$191.43

PnL

+$5.13

Record

85%

5278-901 (6179)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,053.54

Value

$2.63

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

33354-32918 (66272)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$499.42

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$498.13

Record

59%

45758-32100 (77858)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$399.13

Record

53%

3186-2810 (5996)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$345.2

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$344.41

Record

59%

30461-21177 (51638)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$116.81

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$116.46

Record

49%

7902-8215 (16117)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$77.78

Record

59%

10128-7124 (17252)

ccllarCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.35

Record

46%

429-494 (923)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

47%

4556-5064 (9620)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.