Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 35¢ · $826 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$826.38
-$66.4
40.5¢ → 34.5¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 40.5¢ | $731.31 | $413.99 | -$74.82 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Noavg 60¢ | $240 | $262 | +$10 | 49% 146-149 (295) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $90.06 | $91.77 | +$1.72 | 53% 15944-14125 (30069) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34¢ | $45.26 | $45.92 | +$0.67 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64¢ | $44.8 | $45.85 | +$1.05 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $53.39 | $54.28 | -$1.33 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2.68 | $2.6 | -$0.08 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $1.72 | -$0.18 | 48% 2374-2612 (4986) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$731.31
Value
$413.99
PnL
-$74.82
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
Invested
$240
Value
$262
PnL
+$10
Record
49%
146-149 (295)
Invested
$90.06
Value
$91.77
PnL
+$1.72
Record
53%
15944-14125 (30069)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.39
Value
$54.28
PnL
-$1.33
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0.18
Record
48%
2374-2612 (4986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.