Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gwangju FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 26¢ · $628 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
1 arb excluded
$628.46
-$87.45
33.2¢ → 26¢
-22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $951.6 | $161.9 | -$45.02 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $176.79 | $154.7 | -$22.09 | 59% 45754-32097 (77851) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $146.19 | $140.5 | -$5.69 | 53% 15944-14125 (30069) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62¢ | $72.83 | $84 | +$11.16 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37¢ | $73.36 | $56.51 | -$16.85 | |
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $146.3 | $122.64 | -$23.67 | 49% 146-149 (295) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $32.03 | $34.92 | +$2.88 | 49% 7885-8203 (16088) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $11.28 | $11.87 | +$0.59 | 59% 10125-7117 (17242) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $1.32 | $1.14 | -$0.18 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $0.76 | $0.79 | +$0.03 | 49% 236-246 (482) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$951.6
Value
$161.9
PnL
-$45.02
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
Invested
$176.79
Value
$154.7
PnL
-$22.09
Record
59%
45754-32097 (77851)
Invested
$146.19
Value
$140.5
PnL
-$5.69
Record
53%
15944-14125 (30069)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.3
Value
$122.64
PnL
-$23.67
Record
49%
146-149 (295)
Invested
$32.03
Value
$34.92
PnL
+$2.88
Record
49%
7885-8203 (16088)
poshposh<$100Invested
$11.28
Value
$11.87
PnL
+$0.59
Record
59%
10125-7117 (17242)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.79
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
236-246 (482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.