FC Anyang vs. Bucheon FC 1995: O/U 2.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 94¢ · $234 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$234.23
$19
Research grade
NeutralOver at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 62.2¢ | $809.98 | $121.9 | -$688.08 | 50% 11162-10968 (22130) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 62.2¢ | $786.38 | $75.84 | -$710.55 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.6¢ | $23.59 | $46.06 | +$22.47 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 57.1¢ | $40.56 | $58.08 | +$17.52 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $34.56 | $34.56 | +$0 | 55% 8411-6763 (15174) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $18.21 | $19.7 | +$1.48 | 95% 23092-1164 (24256) |
Invested
$809.98
Value
$121.9
PnL
-$688.08
Record
50%
11162-10968 (22130)
Both legs:
Invested
$40.56
Value
$58.08
PnL
+$17.52
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$34.56
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
8411-6763 (15174)
Invested
$18.21
Value
$19.7
PnL
+$1.48
Record
95%
23092-1164 (24256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.